Heavy Armor for a Fragmented Horn

When a government facing domestic insurgencies buys heavy air superiority fighters, it is rarely just about fighting rebels in the mountains. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed returned from the Russia-Africa summit in Moscow with twelve Su-35 combat aircraft delivered ahead of schedule, alongside plans to acquire four Russian S-400 missile defence systems. By placing these high-end Russian assets in its inventory, Ethiopia becomes the first sub-Saharan state to operate fourth-generation fighters of this calibre.

The official justification presented by Abiy frames these arms purchases as a matter of state survival, asserting that if we fail to build this capability, surviving as a country in our region will become difficult. The hardware in question is certainly built for high-stakes posturing. The Su-35 aircraft feature long-range scanning systems capable of tracking and neutralizing incoming cruise missiles at distances reaching 200 kilometres. Military intelligence analyst Qalaab Segatu pointed out that such machinery, when combined with Russian air defence batteries, provides the coverage needed to secure major urban centres and vital strategic assets, including the Renaissance Dam.

This military expansion unfolds against the backdrop of a renewed conflict in the northern Tigray region, where government forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front trade accusations over the breakdown of their 2022 truce. Yet sophisticated multi-role jets are ill-suited for low-intensity counter-insurgency, which Addis Ababa has hitherto conducted using Turkish and Chinese drones. As Segatu noted, procurement of this scale hints at preparations for potential clashes with foreign states rather than routine domestic policing.

Regional dynamics offer ample reason for such foresight. Ethiopia accuses neighbouring Eritrea of backing Tigrayan fighters, a claim Asmara denies. Meanwhile, Abiy’s persistent insistence that direct sea access remains an existential requirement for landlocked Ethiopia has sustained friction with Eritrea, which gained independence in 1993, taking the coastline with it.

Relations between Moscow and Addis Ababa have solidified since a 2021 agreement focused on military technology and training. While drone warfare remains integral to current Ethiopian operational tactics, the leadership in Addis Ababa clearly believes that long-term regional standing requires heavy, conventional deterrence.

Written by Christiane Hofreiter christiane.hofreiter@alpineweekly.com