Söder’s Math Problem: How Tactical Taboos Could Hand Bavaria to the Greens

For nearly seven decades, political rule in Bavaria followed a simple formula: the CSU governs, and the left remains safely outside the state chancellery. That cozy arrangement, long treated as an immutable law of southern German politics, is suddenly looking remarkably fragile. A new Infratest dimap survey commissioned by Bayerischer Rundfunk reveals a sharp erosion of support for Minister President Markus Söder and his coalition, bringing the state to the brink of an uninvited political experiment.

According to the poll, the CSU has slipped to 36 percent, marking a three-point drop since January. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has climbed two points to 21 percent, and the Greens have gained two points to reach 15 percent. With the Free Voters holding steady at 9 percent, the SPD sitting on 8 percent, and other parties accounting for 7 percent, the reigning coalition finds its working majority reduced to a paper-thin margin. Should Die Linke, currently at 4 percent, manage to cross the threshold into the state parliament, or should the governing parties lose just one additional percentage point, the current majority vanishes.

The tactical trap facing Munich is entirely self-constructed. By maintaining a strict firewall against the AfD, the CSU leaves itself with virtually no arithmetic alternative other than inviting the Greens into cabinet if the current majority collapses. That would mark the first time in almost 70 years that a left-of-centre party participates in governing Bavaria, a state that has stood as a solitary bastion against left-wing rule since the early days of the Federal Republic.

For Markus Söder, these figures represent a severe setback. A result of 36 percent falls below the CSU’s already weak showing in the 2023 state election, threatening to register as one of the party's worst performances since 1950. A separate GMS survey published just a day prior offered a more comfortable picture, placing the CSU and Free Voters at a combined 47 percent. Yet the direction of travel in the Infratest dimap figures provides ample reason for panic among conservative strategists.

When mathematical reality collides with rigid partisan taboos, something inevitably breaks. In Bavaria, that break may well end up being the CSU's long-standing promise to keep green ideology out of the state government.

Written by Christiane Hofreiter christiane.hofreiter@alpineweekly.com