Jerusalem’s Arithmetic of Survival

Political survival in Jerusalem has long relied on creative parliamentary arithmetic and sharp strategic diversions. Ehud Barak’s latest media appearance offers a vivid illustration of how election results can be reframed when power hangs in the balance. Speaking to France 24 from Tel Aviv, the former prime minister asserted that Benjamin Netanyahu did not triumph in the recent national election, but instead suffered a decisive defeat.

According to Barak’s accounting, the broad opposition holds 67 seats when Arab parties are included, compared to just 53 seats for Netanyahu’s right-wing and far-right coalition. The catch lies entirely in coalition building. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot and his allies have explicitly ruled out forming a government alongside Arab parties. Yet Barak contends that political pragmatism should force a change of mind, arguing that Netanyahu himself would not hesitate to offer Raam leader Mansour Abbas a cabinet post such as interior minister if it secured his political survival.

The battle over the election has inevitably spilled into accusations of foreign influence. While Netanyahu’s camp claims the vote was rigged through Qatari funding directed at an Arab political party—an allegation denied by Doha—Barak dismisses the assertion as a calculated smoke screen. He points instead to the ongoing Qatargate investigation concerning alleged links between two of Netanyahu’s closest aides and Qatar, maintaining that public scrutiny belongs squarely on the prime minister's inner circle.

Most provocatively, Barak cautioned that regional security could become collateral damage in the struggle for office. He warned that Netanyahu is prepared to launch military strikes against Iran, potentially after the US midterm elections, to ensure he remains in power until the next electoral cycle. Characterising official claims of an impending Iranian threat as fake news, Barak argued that any such military campaign would serve political preservation rather than the genuine national interest of Israel.

Written by Christiane Hofreiter christiane.hofreiter@alpineweekly.com