Building-Block Statecraft: Ines Claus and the Search for Germany's Next President

When seeking a prospective head of state for Europe's largest economy, one might expect a candidate equipped with decades of grand diplomacy or constitutional gravitas. In modern Germany, however, explaining exponential curves with borrowed wooden building blocks appears to qualify as a credential for Bellevue Palace.

Ines Claus, the deputy federal chairwoman of the CDU and leader of its Hessian state parliamentary group, has suddenly found herself at the center of national speculation regarding the succession of Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The catalyst for her unexpected prominence is a resurfaced video from March 2020 currently circulating on X. In the clip, Claus deployed toy wooden towers to demonstrate the rise of coronavirus infections in Hesse from 20 cases on March 8 to 48 just three days later. She urged citizens to cut social contacts, refrain from shaking hands, and ignore unofficial social media channels in favor of government broadcasts.

That such a display now accompanies discussions about the nation's highest office says plenty about the state of the political establishment. Reports from the Rheinische Post indicated that Chancellor Friedrich Merz favored the 49-year-old for the presidency. While the Chancellery swiftly denied that any firm decision had been taken, pointing to scheduled CDU leadership consultations on November 9, Claus publicly acknowledged that being named as a potential candidate was a great honor.

Her rapid ascent highlights the peculiar dynamics of contemporary party politics. Entering the Hessian state parliament only in 2019, Claus assumed leadership of her local parliamentary faction just weeks after her viral building-block broadcast. Despite never holding a federal parliamentary mandate, she climbed to the CDU’s deputy national leadership earlier this year. Senior figures within her own party coalition have voiced skepticism to news agencies, pointing out that her near-total lack of national visibility remains a severe liability.

Her path to the presidency is anything but secure. Bavarian State Parliament President Ilse Aigner stands as a formidable intra-party rival, backed consistently by CSU leader Markus Söder and gaining quiet sympathy among Social Democrats. With the Federal Assembly not scheduled to elect Steinmeier's successor until January 30, 2027, the CDU/CSU faces a choice between established regional figures and political experimentations. Whether toy blocks provide a sturdy foundation for the head of state remains an open question.

Written by Andreas Hofer andreas.hofer@alpineweekly.com