Mobilisation in the Emirates? Washington Wants Abu Dhabi to Step Up in the War Against Iran

Since the start of the Iran war, the United Arab Emirates has been Tehran's preferred target. No other Gulf state has had to withstand as many or as fierce attacks. Rocket strikes, drone attacks, and destroyed infrastructure have become a grim routine. The latest strike on the Barakah nuclear power plant west of Abu Dhabi over the weekend was described by the UAE's Foreign Ministry as a "dangerous escalation" and an "unacceptable act of aggression."

But when it comes to retaliation, Abu Dhabi has held back. Too much, according to Donald Trump and his confidants.

According to a report in the British Telegraph, representatives of the US administration have urged the UAE to play a more active role in the war against Iran – specifically, to seize one of the Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. People close to the American president reportedly suggested that the Emirates should occupy Lavan Island, which is strategically important for oil exports. Lavan is said to have already been bombed in early April during covert military strikes by Abu Dhabi. Those attacks became public last week, but the UAE has not confirmed them.

With around 65,000 soldiers, the UAE military is one of the smaller forces in the Middle East. Its air force, special forces, and presidential guard are particularly effective. However, the Iranian regime has ten times as many troops. "An open involvement of the Emirates in the war is certainly possible," says Guido Steinberg, an Islamic studies expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. "However, any intervention by the Emirates is only conceivable in coordination with the US."

Since the start of the Iran war, Donald Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of deploying ground troops. But the US president knows he would face considerable military and political risks. Observers compare the scenario in Iran to US experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. The conditions in Iran are likely even more difficult: Iran is nearly four times larger than Iraq, has about twice as many people, is mountainous, and has prepared for asymmetric warfare.

The Emirates' interest in openly defending itself against Iran has grown due to the ongoing attacks of recent weeks. If the UAE were to follow Washington's demand, it would not be the first time it has deployed ground troops abroad. During the war against the Yemeni Houthis, Emirati special forces gained experience with landing operations as part of an international military coalition led by Saudi Arabia. "Particularly impressive was the capture of Aden in 2015," Steinberg says. Over the following four years, Emirati troops fought alongside the Saudis. But now the two most influential Gulf states are increasingly going their separate ways. The military coalition could not achieve much against the Houthi militia, which is supported by Iran. Since 2022, however, an informal ceasefire has been in place in Yemen, brokered by a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Abu Dhabi has since largely reduced its forces in Yemen and has recently relied mainly on local allied militias. Until a few months ago, that included the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a political movement and militia that wants the south to secede from the rest of Yemen and which received support from the Emirates. But since the beginning of the year, even that alliance has broken apart. In early May, Abu Dhabi also decided to leave OPEC, the group of major oil-producing countries dominated by Saudi Arabia. Instead, the UAE is intensifying its relations with the United States and Israel. For the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, a rapprochement with Israel is out of the question. The authoritarian ruler has to consider the pro-Palestinian sentiment of his population.

With the Abraham Accords of 2020, Abu Dhabi officially moved closer to Israel. It is entirely possible, then, that the Emirates will now go one step further and openly participate in the war against Iran. "Capturing individual islands from the sea or from the air is easily possible for Emirati troops," Steinberg says. "But in that case, they would then also need to be protected by the US from Iranian rockets and drones." Such an agreement could indeed be attractive for the Emirates, allowing it to maintain its economic model, which is based on security and stability in the region. An official response from Abu Dhabi to the American overture is still pending.

For now, the UAE remains Iran's favourite punching bag. Washington wants that to change. Whether Abu Dhabi is ready to trade its defensive crouch for an offensive stance – and potentially occupy a chunk of Iranian territory – is a question that will define the next phase of this war. The missiles keep coming. The clock is ticking. And the Americans are running out of patience.

Written by Thomas Nussbaumer