Europe Must Brace for a New Wave of Migrants, Security Expert Warns – As Newborn Dies Off Lampedusa

The number of irregular border crossings into the European Union has dropped significantly – by around 40 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. That sounds like good news. But last week, Greece's migration minister warned that around 550,000 migrants are currently waiting in Libya to cross to Europe. And over the weekend, a newborn baby girl just a few weeks old died of hypothermia after crossing from Tunisia to the Italian island of Lampedusa.

Security expert Hager Ali, in an interview, explained why Europe should not be complacent. "One reason for the drop is certainly the weather," she said, noting that the journey from Libya to Crete – just under 300 kilometres away – has become easier. But the bigger picture is more troubling. The situation in the Middle East and Africa has worsened. Multiple crisis zones exist: the war in Iran, the war in Sudan, and unrest in West Africa, including Mali.

Conflicts in other countries lead to rising numbers of migrants preparing in Libya for onward travel. Some wait for the right moment. Others hope to find work in Libya to earn money for the Mediterranean crossing. Still others are arriving in Libya now because a conflict broke out in their home country months ago – there is a time lag. Smugglers in Libya also play a role, often waiting until a crossing becomes profitable for them.

Libya's proximity to Europe makes it extremely important as a transit country, especially because its unstable security situation facilitates illegal migration. From a European perspective, Libya is part of the southern neighbourhood through which the EU tries to externalise its borders. That is why migration from Libya receives far more attention than, say, migration from Sudan, where the largest displacement crisis of our time is unfolding.

Other North African countries are similarly important. Morocco acts as a bottleneck for smuggling towards Spain – whether drugs, weapons, or people. Strategic partnerships with Egypt are often linked to agreements to curb migration, for example by preventing refugees from Sudan from travelling further to Europe. Egypt invests heavily in securing its borders against smuggling because it borders three crisis zones. In contrast, borders in Libya and southern Algeria are much more porous, lacking state control. In Libya, a shadow economy has even emerged around smuggling drugs, weapons, and people, involving militias loyal to Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, who secure additional income this way.

The EU is increasingly investing in cooperation with transit countries to stop illegal migration early. But does this policy actually reduce migration, or does it shift the risks? According to Ali, the risks shift. North African governments know that the EU invests heavily to deter migrants from illegal crossings. This creates perverse incentives to invest more in military, police, paramilitaries, and mercenaries – for example in Tunisia, where the EU has strongly linked its interest in promoting democracy to Tunisian migration management. The dominance of security forces in domestic politics is justified by national security – the fight against terrorism or migration. But the EU thus promotes an authoritarian governance style that breeds instability.

In Libya, the situation could tip quickly. Libyans were supposed to elect a new president and parliament this year, but the election was postponed. Preparation for the vote has almost no priority. Instead, fighting continues in the south and near the Tunisian border. Controlling the flight from these battles remains lucrative. Before the war in Sudan began, the EU also invested in migration control, from which the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) profited. Today, the RSF is responsible for 14 million displaced people. This EU strategy, Ali concluded, is not succeeding.

Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates pursue their own strategic interests in Libya. Many refugees come from West Africa, where militias or mercenaries handle border protection. Russia has exploited chronic instability, resentment against the EU, and high demand for mercenaries. Governments in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso were directly advised by Moscow and supplied with more than 5,000 mercenaries. The UAE uses established smuggling routes to bypass embargoes and deliver weapons to countries where it has interests, also profiting from resource extraction like gold. On gold and weapons smuggling, Russia and the UAE even cooperate.

Turkey's main interest is profiling itself in the arms market through drone sales. The more opaque a situation and the more problems a military force has controlling its borders, the more important drones become for surveillance – especially in the desert. Turkey can profit handsomely from such a situation.

So must Europe prepare for a new wave of migrants? Yes, Ali said, because that is the consequence of conflicts and instability in the region. Eleven elections are still scheduled in Africa this year, including in Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan – elections with high risk, accompanied by heightened security measures and persecution of political dissidents who may need to flee. Furthermore, jihadists are spreading again in Mali, leading to many displacement movements, especially since Germany, France, and the United States have withdrawn from the Sahel. Russia's Africa strategy has succeeded: mercenaries of the Africa Corps use violence to create profitable instability in a region that fuels refugee movements towards Europe.

Europe, Ali argued, is focusing on NATO's eastern flank and the Middle East, but losing sight of the fact that several conflict zones in North Africa and the Sahel are being interconnected through smuggling of weapons, drugs, and mercenaries. New displacement movements are only a matter of time.

The warning arrived with brutal clarity over the weekend. In the night between Friday and Saturday, a newborn baby girl just a few weeks old died of hypothermia immediately after disembarking on Lampedusa. At 4.30 a.m., after being rescued by the Guardia di Finanza patrol boat V1307, 55 people from Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone landed at Favarolo pier. Among them were seven women and six minors. The baby girl, whose condition immediately appeared critical, was taken with her mother to the medical facility, where doctors could do nothing but declare her dead.

The Agrigento prosecutor's office has opened an inquiry and ordered a post-mortem examination to confirm hypothermia as the actual cause of death. The body is being transferred to the mortuary at the Cala Pisana cemetery. In the coming hours, investigators will question the mother – originally from Côte d'Ivoire – to reconstruct the crossing and establish exactly how and when the baby fell ill. According to other migrants on board, the group set off from Sfax-El Amra in Tunisia around two o'clock yesterday morning, making the journey in a seven-metre metal boat that cost between 400 and 600 euros per person.

The mother's other daughter, aged around two, is with her. The woman is reportedly in a severe state of shock and receiving continuous support from staff of the Italian Red Cross, which manages the island's reception centre. The centre's director, Imad Dalil, confirmed that psychosocial support measures had been activated.

The German NGO Sea-Watch voiced outrage on X, noting that while the state attacks those who save lives at sea – a criminal investigation has been opened against the captain of the Sea-Watch 5 on suspicion of aiding illegal entry – a one-month-old baby arrived in Lampedusa dead in her mother's arms after a three-day crossing. "Who will be held responsible for this injustice?" the NGO asked.

The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) also expressed deep condolences and grave concern, posting that a mother has lost her newborn daughter and that there is deep sorrow for the many children and adults who should not be dying in the Mediterranean. The agency is on the ground providing assistance.

So Europe's border externalisation deals continue. The numbers of irregular crossings have dropped. But 550,000 people wait in Libya. Eleven elections loom in Africa. Jihadists are spreading in the Sahel. And a newborn baby lies dead on a pier in Lampedusa. The continent may be preparing for a new wave. The question is whether it is preparing fast enough.

Written by Andreas Hofer