The War Dividend: How American Oil Giants Profit From the Chaos Threatening Their Plants

War in the Middle East has provided American oil majors with an exquisite economic irony. Six months into the conflict with Iran, the industry is pulling significantly less crude and natural gas out of the Gulf, yet it is recording its largest profits since 2022. High market prices, as it turns out, are a marvelous salve for operational disruption.

Since hostilities began on February 28, Brent crude has climbed 22 percent, rising from $72 to $88 a barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the choke point through which a fifth of global energy shipments once passed—has severely constricted global supply. A temporary maritime deal reached last week between Iran and Oman has done little to settle market nerves, given Tehran's insistence that full access requires Washington to meet commitments from a lapsed interim peace agreement. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Iran against blocking the waterway, but market prices respond to risk, not rhetoric.

This price surge creates a clear divide across the energy sector. Chevron, which relies on the Arab Gulf for just 5 percent of its total output, reported its highest quarterly profit in six years on July 31, bringing in $12 billion in adjusted earnings. ExxonMobil faces far higher exposure, with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates accounting for 20 percent of its global equity upstream supply. The company saw its upstream earnings fall by $1.3 billion in the first half of 2026 due to reduced Middle Eastern volumes, but surging crude prices easily covered the shortfall.

The physical toll on infrastructure is nevertheless mounting. According to the conflict monitor ACLED, Iran and its regional proxies have carried out at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary targets across the Gulf Cooperation Council states, with 48 percent aimed directly at energy and utility facilities. Attacks have struck critical assets, including a drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq processing facility on July 27 and repeated hits on Qatar's Ras Laffan hub. Repairing damaged LNG trains at the Rasgas project will cost an estimated $3 billion and take up to five years, reducing ExxonMobil's share of Qatari LNG supply from 13 million tonnes last year to just 4 million tonnes.

Other operators face similar headwinds. Occidental Petroleum suffered operational halts at the Shah gas plant in the UAE following a drone strike and fire in March, while oilfield service providers SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton all reported Middle Eastern revenue drops of 8 to 10 percent in the second quarter. While inflated prices cushion balance sheets today, deferred expansion projects and destroyed physical plant ensure that the war dividend carries a heavy hidden cost.

Written by Thorben Thiede thorben.thiede@alpineweekly.com