Oil, Tariffs, and Skipped Capitals: The Transactional Reality of US-India Ties

When a visiting foreign secretary skips a host nation's political epicenter, diplomatic circles usually scramble to craft polite excuses. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a different route during his second trip to India in five months, bypassing Prime Minister Narendra Modi's New Delhi entirely. Instead, his itinerary pointed straight to the financial hub of Mumbai and the industrial town of Jamnagar.

In Mumbai, Rubio conferred with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and assembled corporate executives. In Jamnagar, he held talks with Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries, home to a colossal oil refining complex. The objective behind these venue choices was straightforward: encouraging Reliance to process more Venezuelan crude oil to help manage domestic petrol prices in the United States ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

This commercial focus illustrates the transactional nature of current American statecraft. Grand strategic summits have taken a backseat to immediate deal-making. The bilateral relationship has faced repeated friction, notably over India's continued purchases of Russian oil and punitive US tariffs, which were set at 50 percent in 2025 before being lowered to 18 percent without a comprehensive trade agreement. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly attributed the missing trade deal to Modi failing to call President Donald Trump, a claim New Delhi firmly disputes.

Friction extends beyond trade to labor and regional politics. White House restrictions on H-1B visas and green cards have hit Indian professionals in Silicon Valley, while remarks by Vice-President JD Vance drew a sharp rebuke from New Delhi, which branded them deeply offensive. At the same time, Washington’s swift political pivot toward Islamabad—following a May 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan—saw Trump host Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir at the White House in June after Munir backed Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Despite political turbulence and rhetorical disputes, underlying economic and defense ties continue to move under their own momentum. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached an all-time high in 2025, while American technology companies committed nearly $68 billion toward Indian artificial intelligence infrastructure. Defense ties similarly showed quiet continuity, with the two nations conducting a record number of joint military exercises over the year.

When trade and military cooperation proceed unabated despite diplomatic slights, traditional summitry loses its monopoly on foreign relations. For governments navigating Washington's unpredictable shifts, pragmatic economic realities remain the primary currency of interaction.

Written by Thomas Nussbaumer thomas.nussbaumer@alpineweekly.com