Central Planning Meets the Energy Market in Tashkent

Allowing energy developers to choose their own project locations sounded like a shortcut to rapid industrialization, until it generated isolated power plants and spiraling transmission costs. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev acknowledged this central planning misstep as Tashkent signed six energy agreements worth $4.7 billion. The deal making brings international players like Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power, France’s EDF, and Japan’s Toyota Tsusho into a sovereign market desperate to expand generation by 3,000 megawatts and add 400 megawatts of energy storage.

For a nation that has attracted $35 billion in energy investments over the past decade, Tashkent’s revised strategy reflects a shift toward classic market discipline. Future projects, including six solar and wind developments totaling 2,200 megawatts, will now move through competitive tenders where electricity purchase terms and grid connections are disclosed in advance. Raising tariffs and standardizing bidding processes have already helped draw private capital to projects like the 1.6-gigawatt gas-fired facility in Syrdarya. Yet, turning an energy-intensive state economy into an efficient regional power provider requires more than competitive bidding; it demands a modern power grid. Tashkent aims to add 22 gigawatts of generating capacity and construct 5,000 kilometers of transmission lines by 2030, underpinned by a National Energy Master Plan scheduled for 2027.

Tashkent is also diversifying its base load through nuclear power. Construction of the country’s first nuclear plant in Jizzakh, a $9.5 billion project being developed with Russia's Rosatom, is already underway to provide 2,110 megawatts of capacity. Not content with a single installation, the government has announced plans for a second and third nuclear plant. Simultaneously, 128 oil and gas blocks are being opened to foreign investors, backed by preliminary government estimates of 5.8 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, while BP and SOCAR continue exploration across six blocks in the Ustyurt region.

Global capital, however, remains cautious of promises written in state decrees. At the signing in Tashkent, institutional investors from ACWA Power and Masdar explicitly called for capital market reforms, local supply chain requirements, and regulatory predictability. Tashkent has responded by establishing an Energy Investors' Council, chaired by the head of the Presidential Administration, Saida Mirziyoyeva, to address administrative barriers and corruption. Whether state-directed councils can deliver the financial predictability foreign investors demand remains the core test as Uzbekistan attempts to route clean power to European markets.

Written by Andreas Hofer andreas.hofer@alpineweekly.com