Europe Set to Remain World’s Largest Tobacco Market by 2030, WHO Warns
Rising vaping rates among teenagers threaten progress despite overall decline in smoking
Europe is projected to remain the world’s largest consumer of tobacco by 2030, even as overall smoking rates continue to fall, according to a new report from the World Health Organization.
The WHO’s European region — which covers 53 countries across Europe and Central Asia — recorded an estimated 173 million tobacco users in 2024. While traditional cigarette use has gradually declined over the past decade, the agency says the growing popularity of e-cigarettes and other novel nicotine products is reshaping consumption patterns, particularly among young people.
“Tobacco use already causes over 1.1 million deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the European Region each year,” said Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. He warned that without stronger action, the region will continue to lag behind global targets for reducing tobacco use.
Among adolescents aged 13 to 15, around four million use tobacco products, according to WHO estimates. The organisation identifies the rapid rise of e-cigarette use as the most urgent concern. Approximately 14.3% of teenagers in this age group report using e-cigarettes, with prevalence rates nearly equal between boys and girls.
Among adults, Europe has the second-highest e-cigarette usage globally, behind the Americas, with an estimated 31.4 million adult users.
The report highlights gender disparities as a particular concern. Europe is the only WHO region not expected to meet the global target of a 30% reduction in tobacco use among women by 2025. Since 2010, the projected reduction stands at roughly 12%. More than 40% of the world’s adult female smokers — about 62 million women — live in the European region. The prevalence of smoking among adult women is 17.2%, compared with 9.1% in the Americas, the next highest region.
Data also show that in nearly half of countries where information is available, e-cigarette use is higher among girls than boys. Kluge described this trend as the result of deliberate industry strategies, citing the marketing of flavoured products and the use of social media campaigns targeting younger audiences.
Several European countries have introduced measures aimed at curbing the appeal of new nicotine products. Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands have moved to restrict flavours and tighten advertising rules. Other countries, including France, Finland, Italy and Sweden, have introduced partial smoking bans in specific public areas such as beaches, school grounds and parks.
However, the WHO report notes that only 18 of the 53 countries in the region have comprehensive smoke-free legislation covering all public spaces.
At the European Union level, negotiations continue over revisions to the Tobacco Taxation Directive, which would update minimum tax rates on cigarettes and extend them to e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches. The European Commission has proposed higher excise duties by 2028, but the initiative faces resistance from several member states and may be delayed.
WHO officials argue that stronger regulation of novel nicotine products will be essential to prevent a new generation from developing long-term addiction. While overall smoking prevalence has declined compared with previous decades, the organisation warns that gains could be undermined if youth uptake of vaping continues at current levels.
Written by Thorben Thiede