Europe’s drought problem is becoming a heat problem

Europe has a drought problem, but the familiar explanation is no longer enough. A new study says the continent’s dry spells are increasingly being driven by extreme heat, which is stripping moisture from the ground faster than rain can replace it. The result is a less romantic, more expensive form of climate damage: crops fail, rivers shrink, energy systems wobble and households pay the bill.

The numbers are already grim. France is heading for its worst maize harvest in 50 years. Romania has lost more than a million hectares of crops. Across Europe, low river levels are disrupting shipping lanes and putting pressure on energy production. What used to be discussed as a weather problem is now a supply-chain problem, a power problem and, inevitably, a political problem.

World Weather Attribution, an international group of climate scientists, examined rainfall trends, agricultural drought and potential evapotranspiration — the atmosphere’s ability to suck moisture out of soil and water. Scientists from 12 European countries concluded that the decisive factor is not simply a shortage of rain. It is heat. In Western Europe, agricultural soil droughts are now five times more likely because of climate change. In Eastern Europe, where dry conditions have already dragged on for six months, they are 11 times more likely.

The study also found that the heatwaves driving these conditions are far more common than they once were. In Western Europe, such events are now around 80 times more likely than in a world without climate change. In Eastern Europe, they are about 40 times more likely. That means a rainfall deficit that might once have caused a manageable dry spell can now tip into serious drought simply because the air is thirstier than before.

Dr Sarah Kew of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute said Europe’s climate is changing quickly and that extreme heat is taking over as the main driver of drought on the continent. Dr Dominik Schumacher of ETH Zurich said the pattern is visible already in spring, before summer has even begun, because warmer air pulls moisture from rivers, lakes, reservoirs and soil more aggressively. The old model of drought — no rain, no water — is giving way to something less tidy and more costly.

The damage does not stop at the farm gate. Merel Laauwen of Wageningen University & Research warned that crop losses, low river levels and water-use restrictions threaten to push up the price of food and energy, with low-income households hit hardest. She also noted that drought management plans are still not mandated by the EU, leaving preparedness uneven across countries. For an institution that excels at producing documents, that is a rather awkward omission.

The outlook becomes harsher as temperatures rise. The study says the current conditions are already occurring at 1.4°C of warming. If global emissions push temperatures to 2.8°C, as projected, the likelihood of these intense evaporative conditions could double. Dr Mariam Zachariah of Imperial College London warned that scorching, dry summers could become a yearly feature in Europe if action is not taken swiftly.

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, called the worsening droughts an unmistakable red alert and said they will grow more severe and more costly as long as coal, oil and gas remain central to the global energy mix. His prescription was familiar: move faster to renewable energy, electrify economies and invest in resilience. The message may be repetitive, but the droughts are doing their best to make repetition expensive.

Written by Martina Kirchner martina.kirchner@alpineweekly.com