The Great Inversion in German Politics

German political arithmetic has effectively turned on its head. Less than two years after the federal election on February 23, 2025—when the CDU/CSU captured 28.5 percent of the vote and the AfD stood at 20.8 percent—the positions have entirely inverted. According to the latest INSA poll conducted for Bild, the opposition AfD maintains a dominant 30 percent, leaving the Christian Democrats trailing by an eleven-point margin at a meager 19 percent.

The minor weekly fluctuations offer little comfort to the establishment. While the Union gained a single point compared to the October 3 survey, the Social Democrats slipped further to 13 percent. The Greens held steady at 14 percent, and Die Linke recorded 10 percent. Outside the parliamentary doors, both the Liberal FDP at 4 percent and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance at 3 percent remain buried below the five-percent electoral threshold, joined by minor parties accounting for 7 percent of the vote.

This shift reflects an electorate weary of traditional governance. INSA chief Hermann Binkert attributed the Union’s slight gain to voter dissatisfaction in Berlin, where negotiations for a Red-Green-Red coalition under the leadership of Die Linke have unsettled traditional Social Democratic supporters. Repelled by a Left-led administration, these voters are drifting toward the CDU/CSU due to significant overlap between the two camps.

The broader coalition math highlights the fragility of the political establishment. A potential Kenya coalition combining the Union, SPD, and the Greens would muster just 46 percent of the vote—a total that constitutes a functional parliamentary majority only because roughly 14 percent of total votes are discarded on parties failing to cross the threshold. By contrast, a hypothetical combination of the AfD and the Union would command 49 percent of the electorate. As mainstream parties assemble increasingly unwieldy alliances to preserve power, the numbers demonstrate how far the ground beneath them has shifted.

Written by Andreas Hofer andreas.hofer@alpineweekly.com