The Art of the Distance: Why Trump Is Hedging on Netanyahu

In international relations, personal affection rarely survives the calculus of political necessity. For years, Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaign material practically presented Donald Trump as a co-star in his bid for survival. Yet, with Israel’s parliamentary election set for October 27, the long-standing political marriage appears to have entered an uncharacteristic period of distance. The former master of loud political endorsements has suddenly adopted an uncharacteristic reticence, refusing to explicitly back the Israeli prime minister as he faces a formidable challenge from Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot.

When pressed in a recent interview with Time magazine, the US president repeatedly sidestepped opportunities to throw his weight behind Netanyahu, offering only lukewarm defenses of his pre-October 2023 leadership while noting of Eisenkot that he had heard nothing negative. To interpret this cold shoulder as a fundamental pivot in American strategic calculations, however, would be to misread how Washington operates. The record of concrete policy decisions—from moving the American embassy to Jerusalem and scrapping the Iran nuclear deal during his first term to authorizing massive arms flows and launching military operations against Tehran in his second—speaks far louder than current campaign trail silence.

The reluctance to offer a public endorsement reflects shifting realities on both sides of the Atlantic rather than a grand ideological rupture. Within the Trump administration, fractures have emerged over regional escalation, with Vice President JD Vance and other key political allies expressing deep skepticism regarding Netanyahu’s pressure for direct intervention against Iran. Simultaneously, public confidence in the Israeli leader among American conservatives has shown subtle signs of erosion as mid-term elections draw near.

In Jerusalem, the feeling of mutual detachment appears reciprocal. Israeli public opinion has grown increasingly skeptical of Washington’s motives, with polls from the Israel Democracy Institute indicating that less than half of Jewish Israelis now believe the US administration puts Israeli security first. Recognizing the shifting mood, Netanyahu has largely abandoned the massive billboards featuring his personal access to Washington, choosing instead to define his platform against explicit regional and foreign adversaries.

Whether Likud retains power or Eisenkot succeeds in constructing a broader opposition coalition, the core mechanics of the bilateral relationship are unlikely to break down. While Eisenkot promises a more restrained approach to West Bank settlements aimed at soothing relations with European capitals, such shifts would do little to alter the structural backing provided by Washington. For Trump, maintaining a slight distance is simply sound political risk management. In the pragmatic world of electoral mathematics, endorsing a foreign leader ahead of a tight contest offers minimal upside and considerable downside if the political dice roll the other way.

Written by Andreas Hofer andreas.hofer@alpineweekly.com