Merz sinks to a new low — and takes the coalition with him

Friedrich Merz has now reached the sort of popularity figure that usually ends a political argument before it begins. According to the latest ARD Deutschlandtrend, 88 percent of respondents judge the chancellor’s work negatively, while only 10 percent give it a positive assessment. That is a record low in the history of the survey, which is not exactly the kind of milestone a sitting head of government puts on a campaign poster.

The trend is moving in the wrong direction as well. Compared with the previous survey, the share of negative judgments has risen by five points, while approval has slipped by three. Merz is not merely unpopular; he is becoming more unpopular, and the numbers leave little room for the usual political self-congratulation.

The damage extends well beyond the chancellery. In the same poll, 89 percent of those surveyed said they are less than satisfied or not satisfied at all with the work of the federal government. Only 10 percent rate the coalition positively. Infratest Dimap questioned 1,303 eligible voters in Germany between 28 and 30 September.

The coalition parties are also paying the price in voting intentions. The CDU/CSU Union falls to 20 percent, down one point and at its weakest level in more than five years. The last time it stood similarly low was September 2021. The SPD is at 13 percent and has slipped to fourth place. For a government that likes to present itself as a stabilising force, this is a rather awkward kind of stability.

The opposition is not exactly collapsing in sympathy. The AfD remains unchanged at 27 percent. The Greens gain one point and rise to 16 percent, their best result in more than three years. The Left stands at 11 percent, while the FDP is stuck at four percent. So the electorate is shifting, but not in a way that suggests affection for the governing parties.

There is one small consolation for the cabinet: some ministers are judged more favourably than the chancellor himself. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is rated positively by 34 percent of respondents, and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt by 27 percent. On the SPD side, the figures are weaker still, with Lars Klingbeil at 20 percent and Bärbel Bas at 17 percent. Even within the government, trust is distributed with the precision of a warning label.

The poll does not merely register a bad week for Merz. It shows a government that is failing on the simplest political test: persuading the public that it knows what it is doing. That is a serious problem in any democracy, and especially in one where the numbers are already this unforgiving.

Written by Freya Stensrud freya.stensrud@alpineweekly.com