Gulf States Unite Against Iran – But Tehran Is Already Trying to Divide Them

For the first time since the signing of the US-Iran framework deal, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries came together in a unified response against Iran and in support of the United States on Thursday. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman held a summit in Manama with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the US-Iran framework deal and, more urgently, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The frontline countries paying the massive price of the war expressed their "strong commitment to the US-GCC strategic partnership" and underlined "the need to maintain momentum and unity" as peace negotiations progress. The joint statement also reaffirmed that "free, unconditional, and unrestricted navigation, including the right of transit passage as guaranteed under international law, remains essential to regional and global security." The ministers rejected "any tolls, fees, or attempts to assert control over the Strait."

The Gulf states also laid out their own view that future economic engagement with Iran is possible, but that it is "conditional and reversible, contingent on Iran's compliance with the MOU and the final agreement," as well as the "cessation of its destabilising behaviour." In an additional decisive move, the Gulf countries declared that the peace negotiations "are not conditional on the outcomes of other conflicts" – a clear rejection of Iran's key negotiating condition that Israel end its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. They called for "the full disarmament" of Hezbollah and stressed that "full Lebanese sovereignty cannot be achieved while non-state armed groups maintain military capabilities outside the Lebanese state authority."

The joint US-Gulf position comes as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps once again contradicted Trump on Thursday by claiming Iran's sovereignty and control over the crucial waterway, warning ships against crossing without an Iranian permit. The IRGC tested the limits of the US-Iran MOU by attacking a cargo ship late Thursday. It was a signal that Tehran knows Hormuz remains the global pressure point and could use it to sow divisions among Gulf nations.

Rubio, during his limited tour of the Gulf, sought to reassure allies, saying the debate is all about "semantics" and that "we are not going to do anything that undermines the security of our longstanding allies in the region."

But while all Gulf states agree that relations with Iran will never be the same after its strikes on them, the economic urgency to restart free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is pressing on the regional rivals and allies alike to work out their own interactions with Tehran. As representatives of GCC countries met Rubio in Bahrain, reports emerged of possible plans for a regional summit between the Gulf states and Iran, indicating competing visions on the future of the region. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that "Iran is likely using discussions called for by the US-Iran MoU to reach arrangements with the Gulf states that would allow for sustained Iranian influence around the strait during the post-war period." Some Gulf countries "may be amenable" to cooperating with the Iranians on "a broader economic framework."

Following Rubio's visit to the UAE, which left OPEC during the war to forge ahead with its own economic interests, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash warned that "new geopolitical facts" cannot be imposed on the Gulf states because of a "treacherous aggression against them." "For imposing a fait accompli from the womb of aggression does not establish stability; rather, it sows new seeds of discord and conflict for the future. And this is precisely what applies to the Strait of Hormuz."

Qatar, which had a decisive role in reaching the US-Iran framework agreement, has repeatedly stated that relations with Iran will never be the same after its attacks, but that negotiation and dialogue are the only way forward. Former senior Qatari defence official Nawaf M Al-Thani commented that "serious states do not have the luxury of theatrical foreign policy, and geography does not bend to outrage." He added: "Iran remains where it has always been, across the water, tied to the Gulf by trade, energy, security, and proximity. At some point, the two sides will speak again. But when that happens, it will not be on the old terms. The old relationship with Iran was difficult, but familiar. The next one, if it emerges at all, will be colder, stricter, and built on far less faith. That is what this war changed. Not the map. Not the necessity of eventual contact. It changed the threshold of belief. Iran can still speak of a future with the Gulf. But after this war, the Gulf will ask for proof first."

For now, the Gulf states have presented a united front. But Iran is already exploring separate talks. The US is watching closely. And the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important shipping lane, remains a flashpoint. The question is not whether the Gulf and Iran will engage – but on whose terms.

Written by Thomas Nussbaumer thomas.nussbaumer@alpineweekly.com