Dissecting the Encirclement That Wasn't

Military plans crafted in quiet war rooms often collide awkwardly with the mud and geography of the actual battlefield. The grand operational concept aimed at enveloping the remaining Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region appears to have suffered precisely this fate. According to an assessment by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a major Russian pincer movement intended to trap defending forces across the Donbas has stalled following a localized counter-offensive near Lyman.

The initial strategy relied on two converging operational axes. Russian formations sought to push south from Lyman while simultaneously advancing north-east from the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia sector, aiming to link up near Barvinkove in the Kharkiv region. Such a maneuver was designed to bypass the fortified defensive network protecting Ukrainian-held urban areas in Donetsk. However, Ukrainian counter-attacks along the Lyman axis, designated as Operation Vivaldi, disrupted the northern arm of this planned encirclement along the Ridkodub–Nove–Novomykhailivka and Yarova–Drobysheve–Stavky lines, forcing Russian units onto the defensive.

Commanders and politicians on both sides have offered varying accounting of the territorial shifts. Ukrainian officials reported notable territorial recoveries during mid- to late September. Commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps Andrii Biletskyi claimed that initial phases of the operation recaptured 176 square kilometres. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy provided a slightly different estimate on 3 October, placing the retaken area between 125 and 140 square kilometres while noting an increase in Russian casualties.

Conversely, public statements from Moscow presented a starkly different picture of the front line. At a meeting of the Valdai Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russian forces controlled 89 percent of the Donetsk region. Pro-government media in Moscow simultaneously reported territorial additions exceeding 1,300 square kilometres during September alone. ISW analysis, relying on geolocated imagery and satellite data, disputes these assertions, estimating Russian control over Donetsk at no more than 81 percent and calculating a net Russian territorial loss of 175.18 square kilometres in September.

Whether such discrepancies stem from deliberate political communication or internal reporting flaws within military command structures, the operational consequences are clear. Russian units near Kostyantynivka and east of Sloviansk continue to make incremental progress through infantry tactics, drone employment, and heavy bombardment. Yet, without synchronized pressure from the northern flank, the prospect of a swift mechanized breakthrough in the Donbas has receded, leaving both militaries locked in a protracted battle of positions.

Written by Christiane Hofreiter christiane.hofreiter@alpineweekly.com