Spain's Snap Election Could Be the Last Domino for Europe's Centre-Left
If Pedro Sánchez falls on 29 November, the Socialists and Democrats lose their last major government in the EU. Brussels is quietly preparing for a shift in the balance of power.
When Pedro Sánchez called a snap general election for 29 November on Monday, the announcement rippled far beyond Madrid. His government, widely regarded as the last major bastion of progressive politics in a large EU member state, was already under pressure from corruption scandals, the unresolved migration crisis in Ceuta, and protests over the housing shortage. Now, with parliament having rejected his two housing decrees on Friday, he is gambling his political future on a vote that could reshape the balance of power in Brussels.
Several EU officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Euronews that the Socialists and Democrats group in the European Parliament — the second-largest political force in the chamber — would likely adopt a more confrontational stance if Sánchez loses. One official described the consequences starkly: "Sánchez was a huge stabilising factor. He was the main guarantor of von der Leyen, always pushing to find a compromise with the European People's Party."
That relationship has been unusually close. EU officials say Madrid and Brussels have developed tighter links than is typical, with Sánchez at times appearing to set the tone for the wider S&D group. If he moves into opposition in Madrid, progressive MEPs in Strasbourg and Brussels would face fewer political constraints — and, as one official put it, "the group would be more sharply critical towards von der Leyen's agenda."
The European Commission currently relies on a parliamentary majority made up of the centre-right EPP, the centrist Renew Europe, and the centre-left S&D. The Greens also broadly support the Commission without being part of the formal coalition. These centrist forces have traditionally formed the political backbone of European integration. With one of the EU's largest socialist delegations potentially leaving government, that backbone begins to bend.
Current polls suggest the centre-right Popular Party and the far-right Vox could secure a majority, making another Sánchez-led minority government harder to assemble — though his supporters point out that he defied expectations after the 2023 election, remaining in power at the head of a minority government supported by Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties.
The institutional consequences could become visible quickly. The first test is the re-election of Sánchez ally Iratxe García Pérez as head of the S&D group, with the nomination deadline set for 13 October and no challenger yet emerged. The more significant test is the mid-term reshuffle, which was planned on the assumption that socialist António Costa and Roberta Metsola would remain presidents of the European Council and European Parliament respectively. With Sánchez out of government, the EPP could seek to claim the European Council presidency — a shift one observer described as unprecedented in the Council since at least the early 1990s.
"The S&D's influence would be diminished in the European Council in a way that we haven't seen since at least the early 1990s," Tobias Gerhard Schminke, founder of the election observatory Europe Elects, told Euronews. Only Denmark, Lithuania, and Malta would then have centre-left governments — and Denmark's Mette Frederiksen, whose migration policy sits closer to the right and has already put her at odds with Sánchez, would become the senior progressive leader in Europe.
There is also a counter-argument being quietly voiced by socialists themselves: that bringing down von der Leyen could produce an outcome even less favourable to the centre-left, as more EU member states shift right. "It is an extremely risky situation," one EU lawmaker said. "The EU without its social democratic pillar changes fundamentally. That alters the historic balance for decision-making in the European Parliament."
For now, Sánchez is fighting for his political life at home, and Brussels is watching with unusual attention. The campaign itself is unlikely to reshape European politics on its own, but the aftermath could. If Spain's last progressive government falls, the EU's centre-left will lose not just a member state, but its most prominent voice on migration, Israel, Trump, defence spending, and the green agenda. And the man who has spent years holding that coalition together will be watching from the opposition benches.
Written by Thomas Nussbaumer thomas.nussbaumer@alpineweekly.com