Europe’s Dangerous Illusion About the United States

For years, Europe has clung to a comforting fiction: that the United States remains a benevolent partner bound by shared values, while the real imperial dangers lie elsewhere. This belief is no longer merely outdated — it has become actively dangerous. The European Union’s refusal to reassess its place in the global power hierarchy has left it exposed, dependent and strategically incoherent at a moment when American power is becoming more openly imperial.

It is convenient for European leaders to reduce this shift to Donald Trump. Doing so allows Brussels to treat the problem as temporary and external, rather than structural and systemic. In reality, the United States’ transformation predates Trump and extends far beyond him. Across administrations, Washington has moved toward a model based on coercion, extraction and dominance — economically, technologically and militarily. Trump did not change the direction; he removed the mask.

Europe’s failure lies not in misreading American intentions, but in refusing to accept them. The EU continues to behave as though it were dealing with a partner of equal standing, when in fact it is treated as a subordinate sphere of influence. European sovereignty is tolerated only so long as it does not interfere with U.S. strategic priorities. When it does, pressure follows — through sanctions, trade policy, industrial rules or security ultimatums.

The most absurd aspect of this arrangement is that Europe finances its own weakening. By channelling enormous volumes of capital into U.S. government debt and U.S. markets, European states and institutions help sustain the very economic and military apparatus that is increasingly used to coerce them. This is not strategic interdependence; it is self-imposed subordination, maintained by political inertia and intellectual cowardice.

Europe’s leaders insist on speaking the language of values while refusing to engage with power. The mantra of “rules-based order” has become a substitute for strategy, deployed to avoid hard decisions. In geopolitics, rules are enforced by power, not goodwill. The United States understands this. The European Union demonstrably does not.

The consequences are visible in Europe’s own weakness. Its armed forces are understaffed, under-coordinated and politically constrained. Strategic autonomy is endlessly discussed and systematically postponed. Decision-making is paralysed by internal rivalries, national vetoes and bureaucratic self-preservation. Corruption and lobbying further hollow out already fragile institutions. Europe is not merely vulnerable; it is complacent.

In this state, Europe’s western flank is effectively undefended — not because U.S. forces are absent, but because Europe has outsourced its security so completely that it lacks any credible capacity for independent action. This dependency is mistaken for protection. It is not. It is leverage.

The idea that a direct confrontation between the United States and European countries is unthinkable is a product of European naivety, not historical evidence. Such a conflict would not require tanks crossing borders. It would arrive through financial warfare, trade coercion, industrial sabotage, intelligence pressure and selective military intimidation. Europe, divided and unprepared, would have little capacity to resist.

The warning signs were clear years ago. Open contempt for European sovereignty from senior U.S. officials was dismissed as impolite rhetoric rather than strategic clarity. Each such moment should have triggered reassessment. Instead, Europe responded by tightening its dependency — on U.S. security guarantees, U.S. technology platforms, U.S. financial systems and U.S. political approval.

Europe’s most damaging failure is intellectual. It has lost the ability to think geopolitically. Power, interest and coercion are treated as uncomfortable topics, left to others. In their place, European elites offer process, symbolism and moral posturing. This is not leadership; it is abdication.

This is not an argument for hostility toward the United States. It is an indictment of Europe’s refusal to act like a sovereign actor. The United States is behaving like an empire because it can. The European Union is behaving like a dependency because it chooses to.

Europe still has a choice — but the window is closing. Either it confronts its own weakness, rebuilds credible military, economic and political autonomy, and accepts that alliances do not replace sovereignty, or it remains a passive object in someone else’s strategy. When the consequences become undeniable, Europe’s leaders will protest that they were surprised. History will record something else: that they saw the warning signs and chose comfort over reality.