Turkey Sees Europe’s Sharpest Fertility Drop as Economic Strains Deepen

Turkey, long regarded as one of Europe’s demographically resilient nations, is now recording the steepest fertility decline on the continent. Official data show the country’s total fertility rate dropped from 2.11 in 2013 to 1.51 in 2023 — the largest fall among 34 European countries in both absolute and percentage terms over that period.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has publicly warned of the demographic risks, declaring 2025 the “Year of the Family” and urging policies to reverse the trend. Yet specialists say the downturn cannot be explained by a single factor, nor is it likely to be quickly reversed.

Demographers caution that the total fertility rate is a snapshot of births in a given year and does not necessarily reflect how many children women will ultimately have. Some researchers argue that delayed childbearing plays a central role. Women are having children later, which temporarily suppresses annual birth figures even if completed family size remains higher over a lifetime.

Still, the pace of the recent decline has drawn attention. Experts link the sharper drop of the past five to six years to economic turbulence. High inflation, rising housing costs and declining purchasing power have reshaped household decisions. Under such pressures, postponing marriage or parenthood becomes more common, and in some cases, intended births are abandoned altogether.

Turkey’s economic instability intensified during the pandemic and was followed by further shocks, including major earthquakes and prolonged currency volatility. Analysts note that such uncertainty tends to delay life decisions that require long-term financial commitments.

At the same time, family size preferences appear to be shifting. Researchers point to a growing norm around having two children rather than three or more. The cost of raising children has increased substantially, particularly in education. The expansion of private schooling has added financial burdens from preschool onward, reinforcing the perception that raising fewer children allows families to invest more resources in each child.

Marriage patterns also play a critical role. In Turkey, childbearing remains closely tied to marriage. The average age at first marriage for women has risen, as has the age at first birth. Meanwhile, the divorce-to-marriage ratio has steadily increased over the past decade. When marriage occurs later and dissolves more frequently, the window for having multiple children narrows.

Changing gender dynamics are another factor. Women now surpass men in university attainment among younger cohorts. With stronger educational credentials and greater participation in the workforce, women’s expectations regarding partners and economic stability have evolved. Some analysts suggest that this shift affects the timing and likelihood of marriage, and by extension, fertility.

Despite the pronounced decline, Turkey’s fertility rate remains slightly above the European Union average. Demographers stress that the country is undergoing a demographic transition similar to that experienced earlier by many European nations, though compressed into a shorter period.

Whether the trend stabilizes will depend largely on economic conditions and policy choices. Financial incentives can influence short-term birth timing, specialists say, but are less effective in altering long-term demographic patterns. For now, the figures signal a society balancing economic uncertainty, shifting social norms and changing aspirations — a combination that is reshaping Turkey’s demographic outlook.

Written by Thomas Nussbaumer