Oct 13, 4:01 PM
Guns Over Welfare: The Fiscal Mechanics of Russia’s Draft Budget
As military costs climb, state spending shifts heavily toward defence at the expense of civilian priorities.
State priorities are rarely declared through official speeches alone; they are measured in ledger lines. As Russia’s State Duma prepares to evaluate the 2027–2029 draft budget later this month, the figures reveal an unprecedented emphasis on military and security needs. Under the proposed framework, security and defence will absorb 44 percent of all federal spending, marking the highest proportion on record and doubling the resources assigned to social programmes.
The parliamentary approval process, scheduled to begin on 22 October, comes after election results secured a constitutional majority for the ruling United Russia party, leaving little room for substantive amendments. The fiscal trajectory reflects growing military expenditures, which reached 17 trillion roubles (€181 billion) this year—far exceeding the initial budget of 12.1 trillion roubles.
While official documentation from the Finance Ministry lists the fulfillment of social obligations as its chief priority, planned allocations suggest a clear shift in fiscal focus. Social policy spending is projected to decrease by 7 percent in 2027, dropping to 6.65 trillion roubles. Although the government has committed to adjusting benefits for official inflation, which has exceeded 8 percent in recent years, funding across primary public sectors faces noticeable constraints. Over the next three years, a planned 10 trillion rouble allocation for child-related programmes will operate at a one-to-five ratio compared to military spending.
The pressure extends beyond federal balance sheets into regional finances, where local authorities are managing growing deficits. In areas such as Arkhangelsk and Tula, regional governments recently redirected funds originally allocated for foster care, orphan housing, and low-income support to cover payments and compensation for servicemen. Similar budgetary adjustments are under consideration in St. Petersburg, where resources for education and healthcare infrastructure are being reviewed alongside increased military allocations.
Concurrently, regional death compensation payments—often established in 2022 and 2023 to incentivise recruitment—have seen marked reductions across several jurisdictions. Regions including Ulyanovsk, Bashkortostan, and Saratov have lowered these supplementary payouts substantially compared to previous levels. Meanwhile, healthcare funding faces a projected 6.8 percent decline to 7 trillion roubles next year according to independent media calculations, a figure contested by the Finance Ministry. Planned reductions affect regional outpatient clinic construction, ambulance funding, and specific healthcare programmes.
Written by Andreas Hofer andreas.hofer@alpineweekly.com
