Oct 1, 8:02 AM
Europe’s robot future may begin in the joints
China is shipping the finished humanoids. Germany is trying to own the bits that make them move, grip and last.
The race for humanoid robots looks, at first glance, like another victory lap for software, artificial intelligence and the usual parade of glossy start-ups. Look closer and the picture is less glamorous. These machines still depend on old industrial virtues: motors, gearboxes, bearings, sensors and precision mechanics. That is where Europe, for once, may still have something useful to sell.
China is already far ahead in deliveries. In the first half of 2026, around 19,100 humanoid robots were shipped worldwide, and 97 percent came from China, according to Smart Analytics Global. Researchers expect about 60,000 units in 2026 and half a million by 2030. The market is forecast to reach roughly $30 billion by then, which explains why everyone suddenly sounds like a strategic planner.
Yet Europe’s weakness in finished robots may not be the whole story. Fraunhofer IPA and consultancy P3 argue that German and European suppliers could still benefit if they position themselves as component makers rather than latecomers in the battle for robot brands. Vincent Bezold, who heads Automated Manufacturing Systems at IPA, says the potential along the German and European supply chain is very large. The problem, he says, is access to robot manufacturers: there are too few of them in Europe, which makes it harder for suppliers to enter the relevant value chains early.
The hardware itself is demanding. Conventional industrial robots manage with seven joints; humanoid robots need more than 40. Every joint needs a motor, gearbox, bearing and sensor. That is good news for firms such as Schaeffler, Bosch, Schunk, Wittenstein and Neugart, which already live in this world of components and tolerances. China is making these parts too, but according to the source material, with shorter lifetimes.
Schaeffler has already moved on several fronts. At Hannover Messe in April 2026, the company received the Hermes Award for its development of humanoid robot joints. The prize recognised the actuators platform used in shoulder, elbow and knee joints. Schaeffler says actuators account for around 50 percent of the total cost of a humanoid, which is a polite way of saying the battle for the machine begins long before the software gets a chance to impress anyone.
Then, in August 2026, Schaeffler unveiled a gearbox developed specifically for humanoid robots. The company says a new production method could cut manufacturing costs by more than 25 percent and reduce material consumption by over 75 percent. Series production is expected to start in mid-2027. In other words, the company is not merely selling a part. It is trying to help define the architecture of the thing.
Bosch and Schunk are taking a similar route with a robot hand. Since June 2026, the two companies have been working together on a hand that can be integrated into different humanoid systems. Schunk brings around 20 years of experience in robot hands and gripping technology; Bosch contributes precision mechanics, electronics and software, and is expected to manufacture the hand in series later on. For industrial use, that hand has to grip different workpieces, regulate force and keep working reliably over long periods.
This is where the real question begins. A strong components business does not automatically make a robotics industry. If Chinese or US companies control the platforms, the software and access to customers, Europe may end up as a supplier rather than a setter of standards. Fraunhofer IPA and P3 therefore focus not only on parts, but on who defines the reference architectures of the next robot generation.
The VDMA takes the same concern further. In its study Humanoid Robotics 2040, published in April 2026, the association expects a mass market for humanoid robots and sees annual sales in the millions as possible by 2042. It argues that Europe will need far more capital, stronger support for start-ups and bolder industrial steps if it wants to shape that market. Bezold’s message is even plainer: Europe needs more humanoid robot manufacturers of its own. Otherwise, the continent may once again excel at supplying the world while others keep the platform, the power and the profit.
Written by Martina Kirchner martina.kirchner@alpineweekly.com
