Black Sea shipping turns from corridor into hazard zone

For a route that is supposed to move grain and other cargo, the Black Sea is beginning to look less like a commercial passage and more like a place where shipping plans are made to be revised by missile impact. A Russian strike on the Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo ship Golden Leo off Odesa has now left 10 people dead, Ukrainian officials said, after fire broke out on board and rescue crews worked through the night.

The Ukrainian Air Force said Russian cruise missiles hit the vessel on Sunday. By Monday morning, Ukraine’s seaports authority said nine crew members and one pilot had been killed. It described the attack as the deadliest of its kind on a cargo ship. That is a grim distinction, but a real one.

The strike fits a broader pattern in the Odesa region, where attacks have been sustained in recent weeks. Regional head Oleh Kiper told Ukrainian television on Monday that 28 people had been killed there in July alone. The sea lane may still exist on maps; in practice, it is becoming harder to treat as a dependable commercial corridor.

That corridor matters because it is one of Ukraine’s last maritime export routes. Foreign-flagged ships with international crews carry cargo along the Romanian and Bulgarian coastlines and on towards Turkey. Maritime exports account for more than two-thirds of Ukrainian agricultural exports and are worth roughly $9bn, according to the source material. For Kyiv, that is not a side issue; it is revenue.

For most of the four and a half years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fighting in the Black Sea settled into a stalemate of sorts. Ukrainian ships were unable to move much beyond the area around Odesa because Russia controlled much of the coast, while Kyiv’s drones kept Russian assets in eastern Black Sea naval bases. That balance now looks less stable as attacks on merchant vessels increase.

Ukraine is trying to respond. On Sunday, Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi said the government and military command were preparing decisions that will enhance the safety of navigation and help protect civilian vessels and seafarers from Russian attacks. Governments tend to prefer such formulations to the more awkward admission that a trade corridor has become a liability.

Odesa itself remains a holiday destination for Ukrainians despite the shelling. Earlier this month, Oleh Kiper said air raid shelters had been set up on 40 beaches open to the public, while warning that seaside locations could be especially dangerous because drones and missiles are often launched from the sea.

Ukraine has also stepped up its own attacks on Russian assets in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. On Monday, drone forces commander Robert Brovdi said 183 vessels had been struck in July, though that figure has not been independently verified. The BBC has seen evidence of damage to numerous vessels in both seas on satellite imagery.

Elsewhere in the country, Russian strikes killed five people in separate attacks on eastern and southern Ukrainian cities. The UN said June saw the highest number of Ukrainian civilians killed and injured since April 2022, with at least 293 killed and 1,990 injured.

Russia also reported attacks of its own. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Kyiv had launched 400 drones towards the Moscow region overnight on Monday, most of them shot down, and local authorities later said 10 people were injured. In Belgorod, local authorities said a Ukrainian drone strike on a bus killed five people, including a child. Ukraine had not commented by the time of reporting.

What is left is a shipping lane carrying a military risk premium that exporters, insurers and crews will all have to factor in. If merchant vessels keep coming under fire, the Black Sea corridor will remain a route on the chart and a problem in practice.

Written by Sandy van Dongen sandy.vandongen@alpineweekly.com