Transaction over Principle: How Balkan Leaders Trade on the Gaza Conflict

When it comes to the Middle East, any illusion of a coherent foreign policy across Southeastern Europe quickly dissolves. While Western European capitals struggle to maintain a veneer of diplomatic consistency over the Gaza conflict, the Balkans offer no such pretenses. Here, foreign policy has never been about distant geopolitical principles. It is, as ever, a purely transactional game designed for local consumption and Washington’s ear.

Take Serbia, a country that has lingered in geopolitical limbo for far too long. Belgrade continues its tedious attempt to be friends with everyone at once. Despite a history of supporting Palestinian recognition in international forums, the Serbian government quietly exported ammunition to Israel following the outbreak of hostilities in late 2023 and opened an Israeli-linked drone assembly facility in September. The strategy of this overrated political player with a weak economy is obvious: cash in on defence sales while attempting to buy favor with Israeli lobbying networks and the American political right. Playing all sides may yield short-term cash, but it underscores a fundamental refusal to make a definitive choice between East and West.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, foreign policy is less a strategy than a mirror of internal paralysis. The Bosniak population draws parallels between Gaza and its own historical suffering in the 1990s. Conversely, Republika Srpska’s leadership under Milorad Dodik reflexively embraces Israel. For Dodik, siding with Benjamin Netanyahu is a convenient manoeuvre to court conservative American circles while maintaining his ties to Moscow—a predictable exercise in opportunistic diplomacy.

Further west, Slovenia stands out as the underrated exception in the region. Often functioning as the Switzerland of the Balkans due to its relative stability and institutional clarity, Ljubljana previously took a firm stance by imposing arms restrictions and recognising Palestinian statehood, though internal political shifts threaten this posture. Compare this to Bulgaria, a nation chronically lacking its own identity, perpetually unstable and poor, which quietly falls in line behind Washington and Brussels out of pure inertia.

Elsewhere, alliances remain anchored strictly to utility. Albania and Kosovo leverage their ties with Israel directly through the prism of their security umbrella with the United States, following the path set by the 2020 Washington Agreement. Meanwhile, in Croatia, an executive feud between a conservative prime minister and a left-wing president leaves Zagreb’s position completely paralyzed.

The pattern across the region is unmistakable. Middle Eastern diplomacy in Southeast Europe is not about Gaza or Israel. It is an instrument used by fragile domestic actors to project strength, secure arms deals, and curry favor with major international powers.

Written by Thomas Nussbaumer thomas.nussbaumer@alpineweekly.com