The Grim Calculus of Kurmuk

War leaves its ledgers in the dirt. In the southeastern reaches of Sudan’s Blue Nile State, the earth has yielded yet another grim accounting of the country's ongoing collapse. Following sweeping operations in the town of Kurmuk, which the Sudanese Armed Forces recently wrested back after weeks of intense combat, troops discovered a mass grave containing at least 25 bodies. According to local officials, including Kurmuk commissioner Abdel Aty Mohamed al-Faki, the victims were executed near Jebel Fankat. This hilltop position had previously served as a launchpad for drone strikes by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces during their occupation of the settlement.

The dead do not fit the profile of combatants. The remains belong to women, children, and hospital staff, suggesting a calculated purge rather than battlefield casualties. Local authorities have squarely placed the blame on the RSF, accusing the paramilitary group of carrying out the executions before retreating. The RSF has maintained its customary silence on the matter. This latest atrocity aligns with a well-documented pattern of behavior from the militia, which has faced similar accusations of mass killings in Khartoum, el-Fasher, and Gezeira state since the conflict erupted in April 2023.

Sudan’s civil war is a masterclass in state dissolution, fought between two rival factions more interested in absolute dominion than governing a functional nation. While the map of territorial control remains fluid, the human cost is entirely static in its upward trajectory. The World Health Organization estimates that 40,000 people have perished since the violence began, a figure that is almost certainly a conservative guess. A staggering 14 million individuals have been displaced, forced to flee homes that have been reduced to contested rubble. The fighting is not confined to the Blue Nile State; intense clashes persist in West Darfur, the traditional stronghold of the RSF, where the army recently repelled assaults near Bir Saliba.

The discovery in Kurmuk is disturbing, yet entirely predictable within the logic of this war. When paramilitary factions operate without institutional restraint or fear of international reprisal, terror becomes a standard administrative tool. The continued deployment of explosive drones by the RSF in the region, even after losing ground, indicates that the tactical objective is no longer just holding territory, but rendering it uninhabitable. For the international community, preoccupied with crises closer to Western capitals, Sudan remains a peripheral concern. Until the geopolitical calculus shifts, the Sudanese people will continue to be caught between a fractured military and a ruthless militia, with only the graves left to record the true cost of the stalemate.

Written by Freya Stensrud freya.stensrud@alpineweekly.com