Beijing's Scripted Stagecraft: Generalities, Veiled Threats, and Strategic Illusions

Beijing’s annual gathering for security elites has never been known for its spontaneity, and the 13th Beijing Xiangshan Forum is proving to be no exception. Conceived over two decades as a tightly choreographed counterweight to Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, the three-day conference provides the Chinese state with a high-profile pulpit to project its vision of a multipolar world order while airing regional grievances behind a veil of diplomatic abstraction.

Opening the event, Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun called on the international community to cease provocative acts and check regressive historical trends. In a broad address aimed at pitching shared security governance, Dong warned that nations must remain vigilant against all manifestations of militarism, hegemony, and historical revisionism. He asserted that by rallying broad-based forces of justice, we must suppress the resurgence of historical dregs.

While Dong scrupulously avoided naming specific adversaries, his rhetorical target was unmistakable. Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have eroded significantly since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi noted last year that a hypothetical Chinese offensive against Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response. Beijing, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory—a claim firmly rejected by Taipei—has since maintained relentless military pressure around the island through periodic war games.

The hostility toward Tokyo extended beyond official podiums. Chinese scholar Wu Shicun, heading the Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, publicly argued that Japan poses a greater long-term threat to peace in the South China Sea than the United States, accusing Tokyo of viewing the waterway as a springboard to dominate Southeast Asian sea lanes.

This diplomatic theatricality unfolds just a week prior to an anticipated summit in Washington between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. Amid shifting regional expectations regarding Washington’s security guarantees in Asia, foreign delegates faced a delicate balancing act. Western powers signaled their skepticism by sending lower-level representatives, with the American delegation headed by Pentagon official Cynthia Carras.

Conversely, regional states attempting to balance Washington and Beijing sent top defense officials, including Vietnamese Defence Minister Phan Van Giang and Malaysian Vice Defence Minister Adly Zahari. Delegates from Pyongyang, led by North Korean Vice Minister Kim Kang Il, also arrived for the gathering. Dong prepared the stage by conducting bilateral sessions with representatives from Belarus, Brunei, Myanmar, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn—a curtain-raiser that highlights Beijing's desire to assemble a coalition of convenience, even if regional constructs like ASEAN remain far too weak to assert any meaningful collective leverage.

Written by Freya Stensrud freya.stensrud@alpineweekly.com