Australia’s migration politics keeps drifting right, while the Coalition keeps drifting nowhere

Australian politics has found a neat little paradox and, naturally, nobody seems eager to resolve it. A new Guardian Essential poll shows more than half of Australians want immigration reduced, and many back hard-edged enforcement measures. Yet the Coalition, which might have expected to profit from that mood, has instead fallen to its lowest primary vote in the poll: 22%.

That is down four points from last month, when Angus Taylor’s party sat at 26%. Labor, by contrast, has recovered to 29% from 26% in August. One Nation has continued its rise, climbing to 25% from 23%, a figure that underlines how migration has become a live political weapon rather than a tidy policy debate.

The poll surveyed 1,022 people last week. It found 46% see migration as positive for Australia and 39% as negative, but 55% still want the annual migrant intake lowered. Another 29% want it kept at current levels, while 16% want more migrants. So the public is not exactly calling for the shutters to come down; it is asking for a smaller, more controlled intake. In other words, less sermonising and more management.

Support for stricter measures is even more striking. Seventy per cent backed forced deportations of people overstaying visas. Sixty-eight per cent supported greater scrutiny of protection or asylum visas. Sixty-two per cent backed preventing most international students from bringing family members to Australia. Tony Burke’s proposal to make it harder for temporary migrants to shift between visa types in order to stay longer was supported by 64% of respondents, while 74% backed steering skilled-worker visas toward sectors with shortages such as health and construction.

Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media, said the results showed both a desire to cut numbers and a growing recognition that migration can still be positive for the country. His warning was plain enough: this is not a market for political theatrics. Most people, he argued, want migration slowed down under clear rules, not abolished in a fit of ideological purity.

The detail matters. Among those who wanted migration reduced further, the categories most often selected were refugees and family members of people already living in Australia. Meanwhile, even those who say housing and public services would keep pace with population growth were not reassured. Seventy per cent said they would still want immigration reduced.

That is awkward for anyone hoping to turn house prices into a simple migration story. Angus Taylor has proposed linking immigration numbers to new housing construction, but the poll suggests the public is not waiting for a neat technocratic bargain. Labor has already moved to align migration with budget forecasts, with Burke promising tighter rules on working holidaymaker visas, partner and family applications, and overstayers. One Nation, for its part, has gone much further, proposing a cut of more than 750,000 temporary migrants over three years alongside hard compliance measures.

The broader political picture is just as messy. Labor’s primary vote has moved from 31% in July to 26% in August and back to 29% this month. The Greens remain at 12%, and are set to choose a new leader on Wednesday after Larissa Waters stepped down for health reasons. Some within the party want a more direct style of leadership and campaigning, apparently in the hope that clarity might still compete with populism.

For the Coalition, the problem is simpler and more humiliating. The public mood on migration is real, but the party has not managed to own it. That leaves the opposition stranded between a restless electorate and a rival on the right that is suddenly looking less like a protest vehicle and more like a permanent fixture.

Written by Thorben Thiede thorben.thiede@alpineweekly.com