The US Wants Three New Military Bases in Greenland. Denmark Can't Really Say No.

Not too long ago, Denmark was seriously preparing to blow up its own runways. In January, after repeated threats from President Donald Trump, relations between the NATO allies hit rock bottom. Denmark flew in extra troops and explosives to Greenland, ready to detonate the landing strip in case of an American invasion. That was the plan.

Then something else happened. Instead of an annexation, Greenland, Denmark, and the United States sat down to talk. The content of those negotiations remained secret until April, when the New York Times first reported on American expansion plans in Greenland. Now the BBC has confirmed the details: Washington wants to open three new bases in the southern part of the island.

According to the British broadcaster, talks have made progress in recent months. BBC journalists cited several officials said to be familiar with the negotiations. Both the White House and the Danish foreign ministry have confirmed that discussions are ongoing but declined to comment on specifics. A Trump administration spokesperson told the BBC that the government is "very optimistic" the talks are moving in the right direction.

The right direction for whom is another question entirely.

From Denmark's perspective, it seems almost absurd to grant additional bases on its own territory to a country that its own military intelligence has assessed as a threat. But here is the thing: whether Copenhagen likes it or not, there is very little it can do about it. A 1951 defense agreement between the US and Denmark gives Washington sweeping authority — as long as the sovereignty of the Danish realm is respected. Back in the Cold War, the Americans ran over a dozen military bases on the island. After the Iron Curtain fell, all but one were closed. The sole survivor is Pituffik Space Base in the north.

Now, according to the New York Times, the US wants to revive two of its former outposts: Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq. The location of the third base remains unknown. Narsarsuaq has a deep-water harbor. Kangerlussuaq has a well-developed airport capable of handling large aircraft. From there, the US military plans to monitor maritime activity by Chinese and Russian forces in the North Atlantic — specifically in the GIUK gap, the strategic corridor between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom. Whoever controls that gap controls access to the Atlantic.

General Gregory Guillot, head of US Northern Command, told Congress in March that the military seeks "enhanced access to various bases across Greenland" given the growing threat and the island's strategic importance. The goal, he said, is to build out the first line of defense against cruise missiles fired from the Arctic. To do that, the military needs airstrips, ports, and accommodation for special forces.

Narsarsuaq has all of the above. In April, a US Marine Corps officer conducted an on-site inspection there, checking out the runway, harbor conditions, and an old hotel. Danish broadcaster DR was there to watch.

Legally, the 1951 treaty gives the Americans considerable leeway. But nothing happens without the Danish government's approval. The real question is whether Copenhagen can actually say no.

So far, Denmark has said very little about the American plans. Since elections at the end of March, coalition negotiations have been dragging on in Copenhagen. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who previously defended Greenland's interests vehemently against Trump, has so far failed to form a new government.

Academic opinion is split. Professor Marc Jacobsen at the Royal Danish Defence College told the Ritzau news agency that he sees the development as a "positive and desirable scenario" for both Denmark and Greenland. He considers an agreement realistic.

Rasmus Sinding Söndergaard, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Affairs, is more cautious. He warned the newspaper Politiken about Trump's unpredictability, asking what would happen if the US president came with new threats once the American presence has already been strengthened.

The plans are unlikely to pass without some resistance. According to the BBC, the three new military bases are formally intended to be designated as US sovereign territory. That means American law would apply there — a controversial arrangement that the US has also pushed through in other defense agreements, including the one with Finland.

So Denmark is left with a choice it never really wanted to make, while its government forms somewhere in the background. The Americans, meanwhile, are already measuring the runways.