Convenience Makes Strange Bedfellows in Ethiopia's Periphery

Elections in fragmented states often serve more as exercises in political theater than demonstrations of genuine consensus. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party may have secured an overwhelming majority in the recent general election, but the view from the country's peripheral regions looks entirely different. Across half of Ethiopia’s twelve regional states, the ballot box has yielded to the gun. Now, seven armed insurgencies—factions that have spent years fighting either the central government or each other—have set aside their grievances for a single, immediate goal: dismantling the regime in Addis Ababa.

The newly declared Alliance for Survival brings together an extraordinary collection of regional actors. Among its members are the Fano militia from Amhara, the Oromo Liberation Army, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, alongside four smaller groups operating in Ogaden, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz. In their collective declaration, the factions accuse the central government of steering the nation toward genocide, destruction, and utter poverty. Federal authorities have so far chosen silence over acknowledgment, but ignoring a coalition that commands active rebellions across six regions is a position built on precarious ground.

What makes this bloc particularly striking is the cynical fluidity of regional alignment. During the brutal two-year civil war in Tigray, the Fano militia fought side by side with Abiy’s federal forces against the TPLF. Less than a year after that conflict was paused by a 2022 African Union peace deal, Amhara's fighters turned their weapons against the central government after refusing orders to disarm. Meanwhile, federal forces have been locked in a relentless struggle with the Oromo Liberation Army since 2018. The prospect of these bitter rivals coexisting in a transitional administration is debatable, yet their shared antipathy toward Abiy has proven a powerful short-term glue.

The government’s claims to democratic legitimacy ring increasingly hollow against this backdrop. The June general election saw the entire Tigray region and its six million residents completely excluded from the process, while both Fano and the OLA dismissed the poll as a farce. Abiy’s administration continues to project an aura of total control, dismissing both internal unrest and international concern. Addressing lawmakers following reports of a potential alignment between the TPLF and neighboring Eritrea, the Prime Minister remained characteristically defiant, asserting that even if others were added, we do not have an iota of fear regarding Ethiopia's sovereignty.

Yet supreme confidence cannot indefinitely substitute for functional state capacity. A central government cannot rule by decree when half its regional states are in open revolt, nor can military containment sustain an economy slipping into ruin. By driving every major regional faction into a single corner, Abiy Ahmed may have achieved what once seemed impossible: uniting Ethiopia’s bitterest enemies against himself.

Written by Freya Stensrud freya.stensrud@alpineweekly.com