Beijing's Complicated Neighbour

Official pronouncements about relationships being “forged in blood” have a certain hollow ring when strategic interests diverge. For Beijing, North Korea has long been a delicate balance: a necessary buffer against American influence on the Korean peninsula, but also a deeply unpredictable and often troublesome client. Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Pyongyang is not a courtesy call; it is a direct response to a strategic headache emanating from the growing closeness between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin.

China’s leadership has watched with quiet alarm as Pyongyang and Moscow have upgraded their relationship. The culmination of this was a mutual defence pact signed in 2024, a development that followed North Korea’s supply of ammunition for Russia’s war in Ukraine. With reports suggesting some 2,300 North Korean soldiers have died fighting for Russia, this is no longer a theoretical alignment. This military convergence has unsettled Beijing, which holds its own formal defence treaty with North Korea—its only one—and has little interest in seeing Russia become the dominant power in Pyongyang.

The recent past shows just how strained the Sino-North Korean relationship has been. The 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations in October 2024 was a muted affair, and senior-level exchanges had all but ceased. This chill was a stark contrast to the warmth flowing between Pyongyang and Moscow. Kim’s aggressive pursuit of nuclear and missile technology has long been a source of anxiety for China, which desires stability on its border above all. The execution of Kim’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, who was seen by Beijing as a moderating figure, only deepened the mistrust.

Yet, Beijing’s response is a study in pragmatism. While the Russia-North Korea partnership complicates American strategy, a positive side-effect for China, it also risks provoking a more robust military alliance among the United States, Japan, and South Korea. A direct confrontation with Pyongyang over its nuclear programme would likely push Kim further into Moscow’s embrace. Instead, China is wielding its economic leverage. Chinese exports to North Korea reached a six-year high of $2.3 billion last year, and passenger rail services have resumed. The message is clear: Beijing remains the indispensable partner.

Kim Jong Un, for his part, understands this dynamic perfectly. Russia’s need for North Korean support is contingent on the war in Ukraine. China, however, is a permanent and powerful neighbour. While he may enjoy the newfound attention from Moscow, he cannot afford to alienate his primary economic lifeline. Xi’s visit is therefore an exercise in re-establishing the proper order of things. It is a reminder to Kim, and to the world, that while other powers may come and go, China’s influence in Pyongyang is not to be underestimated.

Written by Martina Kirchner martina.kirchner@alpineweekly.com