Icelanders Say No to EU Talks in Referendum Triggered by Trump's Greenland Threats

Icelanders have rejected reopening negotiations on joining the European Union, despite Donald Trump's repeated threats against neighbouring Greenland. The referendum result dealt a blow to Brussels' efforts to draw the strategically important Arctic state closer.

Results early on Sunday showed that "No" received 52.8 percent of the vote, comfortably surpassing the 47.2 percent for "Yes." A total of 225,031 votes were recorded, a turnout of 82.5 percent, according to public broadcaster RÚV.

The vote on Saturday exposed a sharp geographic divide, with the capital Reykjavík backing renewed negotiations, while voters in rural constituencies rejected them, some by three to two.

Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir told a press conference that the government always knew the referendum would be a "close call." She said: "It's obvious that close to half of the country wanted to continue these negotiations, but over half of the population did not. We will respect that result."

The result means the Nordic island of about 400,000 people will not revive an accession process it abandoned more than a decade ago after a clash with Brussels over fishing rights.

The US president's repeated threats to annex Greenland, which he has on several occasions confused with Iceland, helped persuade the government to bring forward the referendum. But the upheaval around Greenland failed to overcome a deeply rooted belief among many Icelanders that the country's prosperity and security depended on retaining independence.

"The battle was fought almost entirely on domestic grounds, where strong national sentiment ultimately prevailed over technocratic pragmatism," said Eiríkur Bergmann, professor of politics at Bifröst University. The No campaign had succeeded by tapping into "the most fundamental driver of Icelandic identity: the demand for absolute self-governance."

Many voters were unconvinced EU membership would offer meaningful protection from Trump, not least because Iceland is already a NATO member. Control over the country's lucrative fishing grounds was another sensitive issue. Marine products account for almost 40 percent of Iceland's goods exports. "For Iceland, fisheries are like the automotive industry for Germany," foreign minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told the FT ahead of the vote.

The vote comes as enlargement has returned to the centre of the EU's agenda following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But unlike most of the bloc's existing candidates, Iceland already implements much of EU law through its membership of the European Economic Area and completed roughly one-third of the accession process during its previous attempt to join.

Frostadóttir said the lesson of the referendum result was that Icelanders were happy with the EEA agreement and current relationship with the EU, which the government would "continue to strengthen."

The rejection is particularly significant because Icelanders were not being asked to join the EU outright — a successful "Yes" vote would only have reopened negotiations with Brussels, with any eventual accession agreement requiring approval in a second referendum.

The result was welcomed by Eurosceptic politicians elsewhere in Europe. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage congratulated Icelanders on "voting to keep their independence," while French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said the result showed EU membership should not be seen as "the natural horizon of every European democracy."

Written by Thorben Thiede thorben.thiede@alpineweekly.com