Morocco's Olive Oil Export Surge: The Mathematics Behind Spain's Trade Deficit

When a baseline sits near zero, almost any upward movement produces an explosive percentage. Data from Spain’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise shows a staggering 9,979 percent increase in olive oil imports from Morocco between the first four months of 2025 and the same period in 2026. Purchases expanded from a mere 103 tonnes to 10,384.7 tonnes, pushing the financial value from 340,000 euros to 32.76 million euros. Yet, absolute volumes offer a much clearer picture of these Mediterranean market dynamics.

Moroccan oil now accounts for 7.48 percent of Spain’s total olive oil imports, a noticeable jump from 2.01 percent the previous year. Even with the Ministry of Agriculture forecasting a nine percent drop in domestic production, Spain still expects to yield roughly 1.295 million tonnes for the 2025-2026 season. These imported volumes highlight a definitive reversal in bilateral trade rather than an outright market takeover. Between early 2025 and 2026, Spanish exports to Morocco fell by 75.2 percent—dropping from 2,721 tonnes down to 673.72 tonnes—while financial returns shrank from 11.11 million to 2.44 million euros.

Rabat’s export capacity has expanded significantly following the end of a prolonged drought. The Moroccan Interprofessional Olive Federation anticipates a harvest of nearly 200,000 tonnes, effectively doubling previous yields. Morocco also benefits from preferential trade conditions granted by the European Union, which routinely manages market access through complex regulatory frameworks. These specific trade preferences have lowered the entry price for Moroccan agricultural goods. Across the bloc, purchases of Moroccan olive oil climbed by 712.6 percent between October 2025 and March 2026.

Rabat is competing within a crowded field. Spain imported a total of 39,624.61 tonnes of olive oil in the first two months of 2026. Tunisia remains the primary non-EU supplier, delivering 15,861.10 tonnes to Spain and maintaining an 81 percent share of Brussels' external purchases. Portugal follows closely, supplying 13,174.47 tonnes. Italy ranks just ahead of Morocco with 4,257.19 tonnes. Despite the surge in Moroccan imports, traditional European and North African suppliers continue to dominate the raw volume of oil crossing Spanish borders.

The wider Mediterranean supply chain is currently absorbing a shift in agricultural output. Traditional exporters to the EU have experienced steep declines, with volumes from Turkey, Syria, and Argentina collapsing by 95.1 percent, 83.1 percent, and 53.4 percent respectively. Morocco is partially filling the gap left by these absent suppliers. Ultimately, the resulting trade figures reflect a European market adjusting to volatile harvest cycles rather than a permanent overhaul of the agricultural hierarchy.

Written by Sandy van Dongen sandy.vandongen@alpineweekly.com