Heat Pumps Are Finally Having Their Moment in Germany as Gas Boilers Fade

For years, the heat pump was the awkward relative of Europe's green transition – technically brilliant, widely recommended, but somehow never quite invited to the party. Now, finally, things are changing. New data shows that Europeans are steadily ditching traditional gas boilers for the air-sucking, ground-tapping devices that transfer heat from outside into a home rather than generating it through combustion.

The numbers have not always been pretty. In 2022, the EU installed 2.8 million units. That dropped to 2.7 million in 2023 and then to 2.11 million in 2024. The slowdown worried industry watchers. But according to preliminary data from the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), sales grew by an average of 10.3 percent across 16 European countries in 2025. Some 2.62 million residential units were sold during that period, bringing the continent's total installed base to 28 million.

That is a lot of quietly humming boxes in back gardens.

If you want to see heat pump dominance in action, look north. Scandinavia remains the biggest market when measured against population size. As of 2025, more than 30 heat pumps were sold per 1,000 households across three key Nordic nations. Norway leads the world with 662 units per 1,000 households, followed by Finland (548), Sweden (509), and Denmark (229). These cold countries have essentially proven that the old myth – heat pumps do not work in freezing weather – is nonsense. But old myths die hard.

Out of the 16 European countries sampled, France ranks fifth with 216 units per 1,000 households. Then comes Belgium (196), Italy (184), and Switzerland (179).

Germany, however, is where the real shift is happening. Heat pumps have become the country's best-selling heating technology, accounting for nearly half – 48 percent – of all new heating systems sold last year. That is a 21 percent increase compared to 2024, with 299,000 units sold. Gas boilers, meanwhile, fell to 44 percent market share. Corinna Enders of the German energy agency dena was quoted as saying that the new figures highlight how Germany can reduce its dependence on fluctuations in oil and gas prices.

Belgium also saw a seven percent rise to 11,000 units. Experts there attribute the spike to new restrictions on fossil fuel heating and a VAT reduction on heat pumps.

Then there is the UK, which historically had one of Europe's worst uptake records. Sales grew by 27 percent last year to 125,000 units. The government's Boiler Upgrade Scheme – which provides eligible households with a £7,500 grant (roughly €8,658) toward an air source or ground source heat pump – has been credited for the boom.

Not everywhere is celebrating. Poland saw a decrease in heat pump sales last year. The Ministry of Climate and Environment there says a "wave of disinformation" about how the technology works is hindering the modernization of the country's heating system.

Now for the wildcard: the war on Iran. Fossil fuel shocks from the conflict are driving another surge. Following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, energy firm Octopus Energy reported that heat pump sales in the UK rose more than 50 percent in the first three weeks of March compared to the same period the previous month. In France, Germany, and Poland, residential heat pump sales spiked by an average of 25 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Across 11 European countries, 575,000 units were sold from January to March this year.

According to EHPA, the overall average was pulled down by Austria, where sales dropped by 30 percent due to "the lack of government subsidies." So the recipe for success appears to be: cold weather, government cash, and preferably a closed strait or two. Not exactly a long-term strategy, but for now, the heat pump is finally having its moment.

Written by Martina Kirchner