Sep 27, 12:01 PM
Brussels Tells Capitals to Spend Less Gas Before Winter Does the Rest
The Commission says there is no immediate supply crisis, but it is urging governments to treat demand restraint as the cheaper option while storage remains thin and prices keep climbing.
The European Commission has settled on a familiar remedy for an uncomfortable problem: ask people and governments to use less energy and hope the market behaves itself. Dan Jørgensen has urged EU capitals to keep curbing gas and electricity demand, according to a letter seen by Euronews. The timing is not subtle. Winter is approaching, storage is still below last year’s level, and the price signal is doing what price signals do when supply is tight: climbing.
The numbers are not exactly reassuring. EU gas storage is around 70% full, roughly 12 percentage points below the same point last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. At the same time, the Dutch TTF benchmark is trading at about €72 per MWh, up €40 per MWh since 28 February. Continued disruption in the Middle East and fierce competition from Asia for liquefied natural gas cargoes are adding pressure, and analysts are warning of possible spikes above €100 per MWh during peak winter if LNG export volumes do not grow or if Norwegian maintenance keeps export constraints in place.
Brussels is trying to walk a narrow line between caution and alarm. Jørgensen says there are currently no immediate risks to security of supply, even if the situation remains challenging. But the Commission is also making a less comforting point: a price problem can become a supply problem if everyone rushes to buy gas at once. That is why it is encouraging governments to consider an 80% filling target rather than pushing aggressively toward the 90% goal.
The advice is not new, which is part of the problem. The Commission points back to measures used during the 2022 energy crisis: cutting electricity use during peak hours, shifting demand with smart meters and retail tariffs, limiting temperatures in public buildings, restricting outdoor heating and switching off unnecessary public lighting at night. Jørgensen is stopping short of mandatory cuts, which is sensible enough. Brussels has already discovered that compulsory virtue tends to work better on paper than in households and businesses.
The letter also points ministers to their national emergency plans, which contain tougher tools if conditions deteriorate. Those include interruptible gas contracts and switching power plants from gas to other fuels. For now, the Commission is still relying on voluntary and well-planned demand reduction, and it says the lessons from 2022 can be used again if needed.
The broader message is plain enough. The EU may have enough gas to get through the winter, but securing it could cost a great deal more if global LNG markets remain tight and European buyers compete for the same cargoes. Brussels insists the system is more resilient than before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though not comfortable. That is probably the most honest formulation on offer. The Union is not short of procedures, targets and warnings. What it is short of, once again, is cheap energy and the discipline to treat scarcity as a problem before it turns into a bill.
Written by Thorben Thiede thorben.thiede@alpineweekly.com
